Working Paper: NBER ID: w15069
Authors: William Easterly
Abstract: The Schelling model of a "tipping point" in racial segregation, in which whites flee a neighborhood once a threshold of nonwhites is reached, is a canonical model of strategic interdependence. The idea of "tipping" explaining segregation is widely accepted in the academic literature and popular media. I use census tract data for metropolitan areas of the US from 1970 to 2000 to test the predictions of the Schelling model and find that this particular model of strategic interaction largely fails the tests. There is more "white flight" out of neighborhoods with a high initial share of whites than out of more racially mixed neighborhoods
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: D85; O10; R0; Z13
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| initial white share (Y20) | change in white share (J79) |
| high initial share of whites (J15) | more white flight (R23) |
| neighborhoods near tipping point (R23) | rapid transition to nonwhite majorities (R23) |
| tipping point varies across neighborhoods (R23) | does not yield expected dynamic behavior (C69) |