Working Paper: NBER ID: w14952
Authors: Isil Erel; Brandon Julio; Wooj Kim; Michael Weisbach
Abstract: Economic theory, as well as commonly-stated views of practitioners, suggests that market downturns can affect both the ability and manner in which firms raise external financing. Theory suggests that downturns should be associated with a shift toward less information-sensitive securities, as well as a "flight to quality", in which firms can issue high-rated securities but not low-rated ones. We evaluate these hypotheses on a large sample of publicly-traded debt issues, seasoned equity offers, and bank loans. We find that market downturns lead firms to use less information-sensitive securities. In addition, poor market conditions affect the structure of securities offered, shifting them towards shorter maturities and more security. Furthermore, market conditions affect the quality of securities offered, with worsening conditions substantially lowering the number of low-rated debt issues. Overall, these findings suggest that market-wide conditions are important factors in firms' capital raising decisions.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: E00; G01; G32
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Poor market conditions (D49) | firms issue less information-sensitive securities (G24) |
| Market downturns (E32) | firms shift from equity to convertibles (G32) |
| Market downturns (E32) | firms shift from convertibles to debt (G32) |
| Poor market conditions (D49) | decrease expected maturity of public bonds and private loans (E43) |
| Poor market conditions (D49) | increase likelihood that securities are secured (G24) |
| Market downturns (E32) | no reduction in issuances of high-quality bonds (G12) |
| Market downturns (E32) | significant drop in likelihood of issuing junk or unrated bonds (G33) |