Working Paper: NBER ID: w14917
Authors: Xin Meng; Nancy Qian
Abstract: This paper estimates the long run impact of famine on survivors in the context of China's Great Famine. To address problems of measurement error of famine exposure and potential endogeneity of famine intensity, we exploit a novel source of variation in regional intensity of famine derived from the unique institutional determinants of the Great Famine. To address attenuation bias caused by selection for survival, we estimate the impact on the upper quantiles of the distribution of outcomes. Our results indicate that in-utero and early childhood exposure to famine had large negative effects on adult height, weight, weight-for-height, educational attainment and labor supply.
Keywords: Famine; Health; Education; Labor Supply; China
JEL Codes: I1; J01; J1; O1
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| In utero and early childhood exposure to famine during China's Great Famine (J13) | significant negative effects on adult health outcomes (I12) |
| In utero and early childhood exposure to famine during China's Great Famine (J13) | reduction in height (I14) |
| In utero and early childhood exposure to famine during China's Great Famine (J13) | reduction in weight (I14) |
| In utero and early childhood exposure to famine during China's Great Famine (J13) | reduction in educational attainment (I24) |
| In utero and early childhood exposure to famine during China's Great Famine (J13) | negative effects on labor supply (J22) |
| Exposure to famine is associated with more severe adverse effects due to famine exposure for survivors from the upper quantiles (I12) | larger estimates for the 90th percentile of outcomes (C51) |