Working Paper: NBER ID: w14817
Authors: Sam Schulhofer-Wohl; Miguel Garrido
Abstract: The Cincinnati Post published its last edition on New Year's Eve 2007, leaving the Cincinnati Enquirer as the only daily newspaper in the market. The next year, fewer candidates ran for municipal office in the Kentucky suburbs most reliant on the Post, incumbents became more likely to win reelection, and voter turnout and campaign spending fell. These changes happened even though the Enquirer at least temporarily increased its coverage of the Post's former strongholds. Voter turnout remained depressed through 2010, nearly three years after the Post closed, but the other effects diminished with time. We exploit a difference-in-differences strategy and the fact that the Post's closing date was fixed 30 years in advance to rule out some non-causal explanations for our results. Although our findings are statistically imprecise, they demonstrate that newspapers - even underdogs such as the Post, which had a circulation of just 27,000 when it closed - can have a substantial and measurable impact on public life.
Keywords: newspapers; political engagement; voter turnout; incumbent advantage; campaign spending
JEL Codes: H70; K21; L82; N82
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Cincinnati Post's closure (L87) | changes in local political dynamics in the Kentucky suburbs (H73) |
| Cincinnati Post's closure (L87) | decrease in voter turnout (K16) |
| Cincinnati Post's closure (L87) | decrease in number of candidates running for local office (K16) |
| Cincinnati Post's closure (L87) | increase in incumbent advantage (D79) |
| Cincinnati Post's closure (L87) | decrease in campaign spending per candidate (K16) |
| Cincinnati Post's closure (L87) | persistence of effects on voter turnout for nearly three years (K16) |