Working Paper: NBER ID: w14774
Authors: Camilo Garcia Jimeno; James A. Robinson
Abstract: One of the most salient explanations for the distinctive path of economic and political development of the United States is captured by the 'Frontier (or Turner) thesis'. Turner argued that it was the presence of the open frontier which explained why the United States became democratic and, at least implicitly, prosperous. In this paper we provide a simple test of this idea. We begin with the contradictory observation that almost every Latin American country had a frontier in the 19th century as well. We show that while the data does not support the Frontier thesis, it is consistent with a more complex 'conditional Frontier thesis.' In this view, the effect of the frontier is conditional on the way that the frontier was allocated and this in turn depends on political institutions at the time of frontier expansion. We show that for countries with the worst political institutions, there is a negative correlation between the historical extent of the frontier and contemporary income per-capita. For countries with better political institutions this correlation is positive. Though the effect of the frontier on democracy is positive irrespective of initial political institutions, it is larger the better were these institutions. In essence, Turner saw the frontier as having positive effects on development because he already lived in a country with good institutions.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: N0
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Frontier land in 1850 (N91) | GDP per capita (O49) |
| Frontier land in 1850 + Constraints on executive power (D72) | GDP per capita (O49) |
| Frontier land in 1850 + Poor political institutions (N91) | Lower GDP per capita (F69) |
| Frontier land in 1850 + Better political institutions (N91) | Higher GDP per capita (O57) |
| Frontier land in 1850 (N91) | Democracy scores (D72) |
| Frontier land + Strong political constraints (P19) | Greater impact on democracy (D72) |
| Oligarchically allocated frontier (P26) | Hindered development (O17) |
| Frontier land (Q15) | Economic growth (O49) |