Working Paper: NBER ID: w1467
Authors: Nicholas M. Kiefer; Shelly J. Lundberg; George R. Neumann
Abstract: Most data used to study the durations of unemployment spells come from the Current Population Survey, which is a point-in-time survey and gives an incomplete picture of the underlying duration distribution. We introduce a new sample of completed unemployment spells obtained from panel data and apply CPS sampling and reporting techniques to replicate the type of data used by other researchers. Predicted duration distributions derived from this CPS-like data are then compared to the actual distribution. We conclude that the best inferences that can be made about unemployment durations using CPS-like data are seriously biased.
Keywords: Unemployment; CPS Data; Duration; Labor Market
JEL Codes: J64
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| CPS data (C80) | significant biases in estimating the duration of unemployment spells (C41) |
| point-in-time sampling (C83) | underestimation of mean durations (C41) |
| CPS sampling method (C83) | significant measurement error (C20) |
| CPS data (C80) | unreliable estimates of the duration distribution (C41) |
| CPS data (C80) | distorted understanding of unemployment durations (J64) |