Working Paper: NBER ID: w14627
Authors: Bruce Blonigen
Abstract: This paper revisits the issue of people's preferences for international trade protection examining survey data from the American National Election Studies. I first show that both an individual's skills and the international trade characteristics of their employment industry affects their trade policy preferences, in contrast to previous analysis using these data. Second, I document that many people do not feel informed enough to state a preference on trade protection, which is inconsistent with assumptions of standard political economy models. I examine the factors that correlate with being uninformed, and show that inferences from actual trade policy outcomes can be incorrect if one does not account for this uninformed group. Finally, I examine and find that individuals' retirement decisions have systematic effects on both their choice to be informed and their trade policy preferences. This highlights that there are significant life-cycle implications to trade policy preferences.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: D72; D83; F13; F16
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| individual's skills (J24) | trade policy preferences (F13) |
| higher levels of education and relative wages (I24) | less likely to favor new import restrictions (F14) |
| lack of information (D89) | higher likelihood of supporting trade protection (F13) |
| retirement (J26) | decrease in the likelihood of being informed about trade policy (F13) |
| retirement (J26) | change in causal mechanisms of trade policy preferences (F13) |