Working Paper: NBER ID: w14585
Authors: Timothy J. Besley; Torsten Persson
Abstract: This paper studies the incidence of civil war over time. We put forward a canonical model of civil war, which relates the incidence of conflict to circumstances, institutions and features of the underlying economy and polity. We use this model to derive testable predictions and to interpret the cross-sectional and times-series variations in civil conflict. Our most novel emprical finding is that higher world market prices of exported, as well as imported, commodities are strong and significant predictors of higher within-country incidence of civil war.
Keywords: civil war; economic determinants; institutional factors; conflict incidence
JEL Codes: D74; F52; O11; Q54
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Higher world market prices for exported commodities (F69) | Increased incidence of civil war (H56) |
| Higher world market prices for imported commodities (F69) | Increased incidence of civil war (H56) |
| Increased export prices (F14) | Increased likelihood of conflict (D74) |
| Increased import prices (F14) | Increased incidence of civil war (H56) |
| Higher world market prices (F16) | Increased likelihood of civil war (D74) |
| Stronger effects of world market prices on civil war incidence (F69) | Weaker political institutions (O17) |