Working Paper: NBER ID: w14498
Authors: Samuel H. Preston; Caroline Sten Hartnett
Abstract: This paper reviews the major social and demographic forces influencing American fertility levels with the aim of predicting changes during the next three decades. Increases in the Hispanic population and in educational attainment are expected to have modest and offsetting effects on fertility levels. A cessation of the recent pattern of increasing ages at childbearing will at some point put upward pressure on period (but not cohort) fertility rates. Higher relative wages for women and better contraception have empowered women and fundamentally altered marriage and relations between the sexes. But women's childbearing has become less dependent upon stable relations with men, and educational differences in intended fertility have narrowed. One explanation of higher fertility in the U.S. than in other developed countries is that its institutions have adapted better to rising relative wages for women and the attendant increase in women's labor force participation.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: H0; H55; J11; J13
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Hispanic population growth (J11) | total fertility rate (TFR) (J13) |
| educational attainment (I21) | total fertility rate (TFR) (J13) |
| higher relative wages for women (J31) | dynamics of marriage (J12) |
| dynamics of marriage (J12) | dependence on stable relations with men for childbearing (J12) |
| changing social norms around marriage and childbearing (J12) | out-of-wedlock births (J12) |
| educational attainment (I21) | number of children (J13) |
| fertility of Hispanic women (J13) | fertility of non-Hispanic whites (J19) |