Working Paper: NBER ID: w14451
Authors: Asher A. Blass; Saul Lach; Charles F. Manski
Abstract: When data on actual choices are not available, researchers studying preferences sometimes pose choice scenarios and ask respondents to state the actions they would choose if they were to face these scenarios. The data on stated choices are then used to estimate random utility models, as if they are data on actual choices. Stated choices may differ from actual ones because researchers typically provide respondents with less information than they would have facing actual choice problems. Elicitation of choice probabilities overcomes this problem by permitting respondents to express uncertainty about their behavior. This paper shows how to use elicited choice probabilities to estimate random utility models with random coefficients and applies the methodology to estimate preferences for electricity reliability in Israel.
Keywords: Elicited Choice Probabilities; Random Utility Models; Electricity Reliability; Consumer Preferences
JEL Codes: C25; C42; D12; L51; L94
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| elicited choice probabilities (C25) | uncertainty about choices (D80) |
| uncertainty about choices (D80) | more accurate estimation of preferences (D11) |
| elicited choice probabilities (C25) | estimation of utility function parameters (C51) |
| elicited choice probabilities (C25) | consumer willingness to pay for reduced electricity outages (L97) |
| stated choices (D01) | bias in results (C83) |
| elicited choice probabilities (C25) | weaker distributional assumptions (D39) |
| elicited choice probabilities (C25) | mixed logit framework (C35) |