Working Paper: NBER ID: w14445
Authors: Brian G. Knight; Chunfang Chiang
Abstract: This paper investigates the relationship between media bias and the influence of the media on voting in the context of newspaper endorsements. We first develop a simple econometric model in which voters choose candidates under uncertainty and rely on endorsements from better informed sources. Newspapers are potentially biased in favor of one of the candidates and voters thus rationally account for the credibility of any endorsements. Our primary empirical finding is that endorsements are influential in the sense that voters are more likely to support the recommended candidate after publication of the endorsement. The degree of this influence, however, depends upon the credibility of the endorsement. In this way, endorsements for the Democratic candidate from left-leaning newspapers are less influential than are endorsements from neutral or right-leaning newspapers, and likewise for endorsements for the Republican. These findings suggest that voters do rely on the media for information during campaigns but that the extent of this reliance depends upon the degree and direction of any bias.
Keywords: media bias; voting behavior; newspaper endorsements; political economy
JEL Codes: D70; H00
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| newspaper endorsements (D79) | likelihood of supporting endorsed candidate (D79) |
| ideological leanings of newspapers (P16) | credibility of endorsements (M37) |
| credibility of endorsements (M37) | shift in voter support (K16) |
| voter ideology (K16) | influence of endorsements (M37) |
| newspaper ownership (L32) | influence of endorsements (M37) |
| voters filter media bias (D72) | impact on credibility of endorsements (M37) |
| endorsements from left-leaning newspapers (Y30) | influence on voter behavior (K16) |
| high-credibility endorsements (M37) | significant shift in voter support (K16) |
| low-credibility endorsements (M37) | impact on voter decisions (D72) |