Working Paper: NBER ID: w14377
Authors: Paul W. Rhode; Koleman Strumpf
Abstract: Political future markets, in which investors bet on election outcomes, are often thought a recent invention. Such markets in fact have a long history in many Western countries. This paper traces the operation of political futures markets back to 16th Century Italy, 18th Century Britain, and 19th Century United States. In the United States, election betting was a common part of political campaigns in the antebellum period, but became increasingly concentrated in the organized futures markets in New York City over the postbellum period.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: G10; N12; N14; P16
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Legality of betting (L83) | Concentration of political betting markets in New York City (L83) |
| Rise of scientific polling (C83) | Decline of political betting markets (G19) |
| Cultural factors (Z10) | Popularity of betting on elections (K16) |