Working Paper: NBER ID: w14334
Authors: Peter Mancall; Joshua Rosenbloom; Thomas J. Weiss
Abstract: Economic historians of the eighteenth-century British mainland North American colonies have given considerable weight to the role of exports as a stimulus for economic growth. Yet their analyses have been handicapped by reliance on one or two time series to serve as indicators of broader changes rather than considering the export sector as a whole. Here we present new comprehensive export measures for the middle colonies. We find that aggregate exports in constant prices grew very quickly, but barely faster than population during the period under consideration. Furthermore, improvements in the terms of trade increased the colonists' ability to buy imports over time, especially after 1740. Although the export sector performed well, it constituted a relatively small part of the region's economy. It is uncertain if this export success was sufficient to propel the entire economy at a rate that exceeded the growth of population.
Keywords: Exports; Economic Growth; Colonial Economy; Middle Colonies
JEL Codes: N11; N21; N7; N71
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| export growth (F43) | economic performance (P17) |
| terms of trade improvements (F14) | purchasing power of imports (F14) |
| invisible earnings (J17) | exports (F10) |
| export volatility (F17) | economic uncertainty (D89) |