Working Paper: NBER ID: w14276
Authors: Jesse Rothstein; Albert H. Yoon
Abstract: The Supreme Court has held repeatedly that race-based preferences in public university admissions are constitutional. But debates over the wisdom of affirmative action continue. Opponents of these policies argue that preferences are detrimental to minority students -- that by placing these students in environments that are too competitive, affirmative action hurts their academic and career outcomes. \n \nThis article examines the so-called "mismatch" hypothesis in the context of law school admissions. We discuss the existing scholarship on mismatch, identifying methodological limitations of earlier attempts to measure the effects of affirmative action. Using a simpler, more robust analytical strategy, we find that the data are inconsistent with large mismatch effects, particularly with respect to employment outcomes. While moderate mismatch effects are possible, they are concentrated among the students with the weakest entering academic credentials. \n \nTo put our estimates in context, we simulate admissions under race-blind rules. Eliminating affirmative action would dramatically reduce the number of black law students, particularly at the most selective schools. Many potentially successful black law students would be excluded, far more than the number who would be induced to pass the bar exam by the elimination of mismatch effects. Accordingly, we find that eliminating affirmative action would dramatically reduce the production of black lawyers.
Keywords: affirmative action; law school admissions; mismatch hypothesis; racial preferences
JEL Codes: I20; J15; K30
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Eliminating affirmative action (J78) | Dramatic reduction in the number of black law students (K49) |
| Dramatic reduction in the number of black law students (K49) | Significant decline in the production of black lawyers (J79) |
| Eliminating affirmative action (J78) | Reduction of at least 50% in the production of new black lawyers (J79) |
| Moderate mismatch effects exist (C52) | Concentrated among students with weakest academic credentials (I24) |
| Data do not support large mismatch effects (C52) | Particularly regarding employment outcomes (J68) |
| Benefits of affirmative action in maintaining diversity (J78) | Outweigh potential negative mismatch effects (D91) |