Working Paper: NBER ID: w14270
Authors: Christopher F. Chabris; David Laibson; Carrie L. Morris; Jonathon P. Schuldt; Dmitry Taubinsky
Abstract: We estimate discount rates of 555 subjects using a laboratory task and find that these individual discount rates predict inter-individual variation in field behaviors (e.g., exercise, BMI, smoking). The correlation between the discount rate and each field behavior is small: none exceeds 0.28 and many are near 0. However, the discount rate has at least as much predictive power as any variable in our dataset (e.g., sex, age, education). The correlation between the discount rate and field behavior rises when field behaviors are aggregated: these correlations range from 0.09-0.38. We present a model that explains why specific intertemporal choice behaviors are only weakly correlated with discount rates, even though discount rates robustly predict aggregates of intertemporal decisions.
Keywords: discount rates; intertemporal choice; field behavior; health behaviors
JEL Codes: C91; D9; I1
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| individual discount rates (H43) | field behaviors (C92) |
| individual discount rates (H43) | exercise (Y60) |
| individual discount rates (H43) | BMI (I12) |
| individual discount rates (H43) | smoking (L66) |
| aggregated field behaviors (C92) | individual discount rates (H43) |