Working Paper: NBER ID: w14261
Authors: Jason M. Lindo; Nicholas J. Sanders; Philip Oreopoulos
Abstract: We use a regression discontinuity design to examine students' responses to the negative incentive brought on by being placed on academic probation. Consistent with a model of introducing performance standards in which agents respond differently based on ability, we find that being placed on probation at the end of the first year discourages some students from returning to school while improving the performance of those who return. Contrary to the predictions of the model when ability is known, we find that heterogeneous discouragement effects result in high ability students having a greater overall dropout rate near the cutoff than lower ability students. The result can be explained by extending the model to allow for the performance standard to also affect self confidence (ability expectations). We also consider effects by gender and find that being placed on probation more than doubles the probability that men drop out but has no such discouragement effect for women.
Keywords: academic probation; performance standards; gender differences; regression discontinuity design
JEL Codes: D80; I20
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Being placed on probation (K40) | Discourages some students from returning to school (I21) |
| Being placed on probation (K40) | Motivates those who return to improve performance (I26) |
| Being placed on probation (K40) | Increases probability of dropout for high ability students (D29) |
| Being placed on probation (K40) | Increases dropout probability for men (J79) |
| Being placed on probation (K40) | No significant effect on dropout probability for women (J79) |
| Being placed on probation (K40) | Increases subsequent GPAs for those who remain enrolled (I23) |
| Being placed on probation (K40) | Negative impact on high ability students' likelihood of graduating within five years (D29) |