Working Paper: NBER ID: w14221
Authors: Edward E. Leamer
Abstract: Monthly US data on payroll employment, civilian employment, industrial production and the unemployment rate are used to define a recession-dating algorithm that nearly perfectly reproduces the NBER official peak and trough dates. The only substantial point of disagreement is with respect to the NBER November 1973 peak. The algorithm prefers September 1974. In addition, this algorithm indicates that the data through June 2008 do not yet exceed the recession threshold, and will do so only if things get much worse.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: E3; E32; E37
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| declines in payroll employment (J63) | recession periods (E32) |
| declines in industrial production (L16) | recession periods (E32) |
| increases in unemployment rate (J64) | recession periods (E32) |
| recession dating algorithm (E32) | accurate identification of recession periods (E32) |
| declines in payroll employment and industrial production, along with increases in unemployment rate (J65) | recession (E32) |