Working Paper: NBER ID: w14217
Authors: Maurice Obstfeld; Jay C. Shambaugh; Alan M. Taylor
Abstract: The rapid growth of international reserves---a development concentrated in the emerging markets---remains a puzzle. In this paper we suggest that a model based on financial stability and financial openness goes far toward explaining reserve holdings in the modern era of globalized capital markets. The size of domestic financial liabilities that could potentially be converted into foreign currency (M2), financial openness, the ability to access foreign currency through debt markets, and exchange rate policy are all significant predictors of reserve stocks. Our empirical financial-stability model seems to outperform both traditional models and recent explanations based on external short-term debt.
Keywords: International Reserves; Financial Stability; Financial Openness; Emerging Markets; Exchange Rate Policy
JEL Codes: E44; E58; F21; F36; F41; N10; O24
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| size of domestic financial liabilities (M2) (E51) | reserve stocks (E58) |
| financial openness (F30) | reserve demand (Q21) |
| exchange rate policy (F31) | reserve levels (E58) |
| (size of domestic financial liabilities (M2), financial openness, exchange rate policy) (F30) | reserve-to-GDP ratios (H60) |