Working Paper: NBER ID: w14137
Authors: Steven J. Davis; R. Jason Faberman; John C. Haltiwanger; Ian Rucker
Abstract: We develop and implement a method to improve estimates of worker flows and job openings based on the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). Our method involves reweighting the cross-sectional density of employment growth rates in JOLTS to match the corresponding density in the comprehensive Business Employment Dynamics (BED) data. To motivate our work, we compare JOLTS to other data sources and document large discrepancies with respect to aggregate employment growth, the magnitude of worker flows, and the cross-sectional density of establishment growth rates. We also discuss issues related to JOLTS sample design and nonresponse corrections. Our adjusted statistics for hires and separations exceed the published statistics by about one-third. The adjusted layoff rate is more than 60 percent greater than the published layoff rate. Time-series properties are also affected. For example, hires exhibit more volatility than separations in the published statistics, but the reverse holds in the adjusted statistics. The impact of our adjustment methodology on estimated job openings is more modest, raising the vacancy rate by about 8 percent.
Keywords: worker flows; job openings; JOLTS; labor market dynamics
JEL Codes: C82; J63
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| adjustments to JOLTS estimates (C51) | significant increase in adjusted hires (J68) |
| adjustments to JOLTS estimates (C51) | significant increase in adjusted separations (J63) |
| adjustments to JOLTS estimates (C51) | adjusted layoff rate (J63) |
| adjusted statistics (C80) | volatility of hires (J63) |
| adjustments to JOLTS estimates (C51) | average vacancy rate (J69) |
| adjustments to JOLTS estimates (C51) | discrepancies between nonfarm private sector employment growth in CES and hires/separations in JOLTS (J63) |