Working Paper: NBER ID: w14091
Authors: Eric J. Brunner; Stephen L. Ross; Ebonya L. Washington
Abstract: Using California ballot proposition returns and exogenous shifts to labor demand, we provide the first large-scale causal evidence of the impact of economic conditions on policy preferences. Consistent with economic theory, we find that positive economic shocks decrease support for redistributive policies. More notably, we find evidence of a need for cognitive consistency in voting behavior as economic shocks have a smaller significant impact on voting on non-economic ballot issues. While we also demonstrate that positive shocks decrease turnout, we present evidence that our results reflect changes to the electorate's preferences and not simply to its composition.
Keywords: economic conditions; redistribution; voting behavior; policy preferences
JEL Codes: D72; H0
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| positive economic shocks (F69) | decrease support for redistributive policies (H53) |
| 10% increase in predicted employment index (PEI) (J23) | 4.5 percentage point decrease in share of voters choosing democratic side (D72) |
| positive economic shocks (F69) | decrease voter turnout (K16) |
| positive economic shocks (F69) | increase support for conservative candidates (K16) |
| economic conditions (E66) | impact voting on non-economic issues (K16) |