Working Paper: NBER ID: w14074
Authors: C. Fritz Foley
Abstract: This paper tests the hypothesis that the timing of welfare payments affects criminal activity. Analysis of daily reported incidents of major crimes in twelve U.S. cities reveals an increase in crime over the course of monthly welfare payment cycles. This increase reflects an increase in crimes that are likely to have a direct financial motivation like burglary, larceny-theft, motor vehicle theft, and robbery, as opposed to other kinds of crime like arson, assault, homicide, and rape. Temporal patterns in crime are observed in jurisdictions in which disbursements are focused at the beginning of monthly welfare payment cycles and not in jurisdictions in which disbursements are relatively more staggered.
Keywords: Welfare payments; Crime; Behavioral economics
JEL Codes: D91; I38; K42
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| timing of welfare payments (I38) | crime rates (K42) |
| time since welfare payments (I38) | crime rates (K42) |
| crime rates in first ten days of the month (K42) | crime rates later in the month (K42) |
| index of days since last welfare payment (I38) | crime rates (K42) |
| welfare payment cycles (I38) | financially motivated crimes (K42) |
| welfare payment cycles (I38) | non-financially motivated crimes (K42) |