Working Paper: NBER ID: w14056
Authors: Richard Baldwin
Abstract: Small Think Regionalism focused on the Vinerian question: "Would a nation gain from joining a trade bloc?" Big Think Regionalism considers regionalism's systemic impact on the world trading system, focusing mainly on two questions: "Does spreading regionalism harm world welfare?" and "Does regionalism help or hinder multilateralism?" This paper synthesizes and critiques the theoretical literature in an attempt to identify the insights that are useful for thinking about regionalism's systemic impact in the new century.
Keywords: regionalism; multilateralism; world welfare; trade blocs
JEL Codes: F02; F1; F13; F15; F55
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| increase in regional trade blocs (F15) | lower world welfare (I30) |
| regionalism (R11) | multilateralism (F53) |