Working Paper: NBER ID: w14055
Authors: Wolfram J. Horneff; Raimond H. Maurer; Olivia S. Mitchell; Michael Z. Stamos
Abstract: This paper shows how lifelong survival-contingent payouts can enhance investor wellbeing in the context of a portfolio choice model which integrates uninsurable labor income and asymmetric mortality expectations. Our model generates optimal asset location patterns indicating how much to hold in liquid versus illiquid survival-contingent payouts over the lifetime, and also asset allocation paths, showing how to invest in stocks versus bonds. We confirm that the investor will gradually move money out of her liquid saving into survival-contingent assets to retirement and beyond, thereby enhancing her welfare by as much as 50 percent. The results are also robust to the introduction of uninsurable consumption shocks in housing expenses, income flows during the worklife and retirement, sudden changes in health status, and medical expenses.
Keywords: asset allocation; survival-contingent payouts; portfolio choice; retirement planning
JEL Codes: G11; G22; G23; H55; J26; J32
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| lifelong survival-contingent payouts (G52) | investor well-being (G24) |
| investors age (G24) | shift investments from liquid savings to illiquid survival-contingent assets (D14) |
| mortality risk (J17) | investment decisions (G11) |
| age (J14) | fraction of wealth invested in risky assets (G11) |
| age (J14) | demand for survival-contingent products (G52) |