Working Paper: NBER ID: w14044
Authors: James J. Heckman; John Eric Humphries; Paul A. Lafontaine; Pedro L. Rodriguez
Abstract: The option to obtain a General Education Development (GED) certificate changes the incentives facing high school students. This paper evaluates the effect of three different GED policy innovations on high school graduation rates. A six point decrease in the GED pass rate due to an increase in national passing standards produced a 1.3 point decline in overall high school dropout rates. The introduction of a GED certification program in high schools in Oregon produced a four percent decrease in high school graduation rates. Introduction of GED certificates for civilians in California increased the high school dropout rate by 3 points. The GED program induces students to drop out of high school.
Keywords: GED; dropout rates; high school graduation; educational policy
JEL Codes: C61
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Changes in GED policies (I28) | High school dropout rates (I21) |
| 6 percentage point decrease in GED passing probability (C29) | 13 percentage point decline in high school dropout rates (I21) |
| GED policy change (D58) | 6 percentage point decrease in GED passing probability (C29) |
| GED option program in Oregon (A23) | High school graduation rates (I21) |
| GED certification for civilians in California (J45) | Dropout rates (I21) |
| GED program (D58) | Incentives to drop out of high school (I21) |
| GED program (D58) | Dropout rates among minority students and males (I21) |
| States raising GED requirements (I21) | Percentage of 12th graders who do not graduate (I21) |