Working Paper: NBER ID: w14036
Authors: Terra McKinnish; Randall Walsh; Kirk White
Abstract: This paper uses confidential Census data, specifically the 1990 and 2000 Census Long Form data, to study the demographic processes underlying the gentrification of low-income urban neighborhoods during the 1990's. In contrast to previous studies, the analysis is conducted at the more refined census-tract level with a narrower definition of gentrification and more closely matched comparison neighborhoods. The analysis is also richly disaggregated by demographic characteristic, uncovering differential patterns by race, education, age and family structure that would not have emerged in the more aggregate analysis in previous studies. The results provide no evidence of displacement of low-income non-white households in gentrifying neighborhoods. The bulk of the increase in average family income in gentrifying neighborhoods is attributed to black high school graduates and white college graduates. The disproportionate retention and income gains of the former and the disproportionate in-migration of the latter are distinguishing characteristics of gentrifying U.S. urban neighborhoods in the 1990's.
Keywords: Gentrification; Low-Income Neighborhoods; Demographic Changes; Census Data
JEL Codes: J15; J60; R23
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| inmigration of college graduates (J61) | gentrifying neighborhoods (R23) |
| presence of children or elderly householders (R20) | likelihood of white households moving into gentrifying neighborhoods (R23) |
| presence of children or elderly householders (R20) | likelihood of black and Hispanic households moving into gentrifying neighborhoods (R23) |
| gentrification (R23) | displacement of low-education or minority households (R23) |
| gentrification (R23) | increased stability for black householders with high school degrees (R20) |
| income gains in gentrifying neighborhoods (R23) | black high school graduates (I24) |
| income gains in gentrifying neighborhoods (R23) | white college graduates (J79) |
| gentrification (R23) | neighborhoods attractive to middle-class minority households (R23) |