Working Paper: NBER ID: w1403
Authors: Laurence J. Kotlikoff; John Shoven; Avia Spivak
Abstract: This is the first paper to document the effect of health on the migration propensities of African Americans in the American past. Using both IPUMS and the Colored Troops Sample of the Civil War Union Army Data, I estimate the effects of literacy and health on the migration propensities of African Americans from 1870 to 1910. I find that literacy and health shocks were strong predictors of migration and the stock of health was not. There were differential selection propensities based on slave status--former slaves were less likely to migrate given a specific health shock than free blacks. Counterfactuals suggest that as much as 35% of the difference in the mobility patterns of former slaves and free blacks is explained by differences in their human capital, and more than 20% of that difference is due to health alone. Overall, the selection effect of literacy on migration is reduced by one-tenth to one-third once health is controlled for. The low levels of human capital accumulation and rates of mobility for African Americans after the Civil War are partly explained by the poor health status of slaves and their immediate descendants.
Keywords: Annuity Insurance; Savings; Inequality; Life Span Uncertainty
JEL Codes: D91; H55; J26
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Perfect insurance arrangements (G52) | Lower savings (E21) |
| Perfect insurance arrangements (G52) | Lower savings in intergenerationally altruistic economies (D15) |
| Perfect insurance arrangements (G52) | Lower savings in life cycle economies (E21) |
| Shift from imperfect family insurance to perfect insurance (G52) | Difference between absolute inequality and absolute equality (D63) |
| Annuity insurance availability (G52) | Wealth distribution (D31) |