Working Paper: NBER ID: w13956
Authors: David A. Jaeger; Esteban F. Klor; Sami H. Miaari; M. Daniele Paserman
Abstract: his paper examines how violence in the Second Intifada influences Palestinian public opinion. Using micro data from a series of opinion polls linked to data on fatalities, we find that Israeli violence against Palestinians leads them to support more radical factions and more radical attitudes towards the conflict. This effect is temporary, however, and vanishes completely within 90 days. We also find some evidence that Palestinian fatalities lead to the polarization of the population and to increased disaffection and a lack of support for any faction. Geographically proximate Palestinian fatalities have a larger effect than those that are distant, while Palestinian fatalities in targeted killings have a smaller effect relative to other fatalities. Although overall Israeli fatalities do not seem to affect Palestinian public opinion, when we divide those fatalities by the different factions claiming responsibility for them, we find some evidence that increased Israeli fatalities are effective in increasing support for the faction that claimed them.
Keywords: Violence; Public Opinion; Palestinian Conflict; Intifada
JEL Codes: D72; D74; D86; D89; H56; H71
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Israeli violence against Palestinians (D74) | increased support for more radical factions (D72) |
| Israeli violence against Palestinians (D74) | radical attitudes toward the conflict (D74) |
| Palestinian fatalities (F51) | polarization of the population (D72) |
| Palestinian fatalities (F51) | increased disaffection from political factions (D72) |
| geographically proximate fatalities (R41) | larger effect on public opinion than distant ones (F69) |
| targeted killings (Y50) | smaller effect compared to other types of fatalities (J17) |
| increased Israeli fatalities (claimed by a specific faction) (F51) | increased support for that faction (D74) |
| predisposition to radical views (based on demographics) (J15) | more pronounced radicalization effect (P39) |
| Palestinian fatalities (F51) | shifts in public opinion away from moderate positions (D72) |
| Palestinian fatalities (F51) | no significant effects beyond three months (C41) |