Working Paper: NBER ID: w13813
Authors: Leah Platt Boustan
Abstract: Four million blacks left the South from 1940 to 1970, doubling the northern black workforce. I exploit variation in migrant flows within skill groups over time to estimate the elasticity of substitution by race. I then use this estimate to calculate counterfactual rates of wage growth. I find that black wages in the North would have been around 7 percent higher in 1970 if not for the migrant influx, while white wages would have remained unchanged. On net, migration was an avenue for black economic advancement, but the migration created both winners and losers.
Keywords: black migration; racial wage convergence; elasticity of substitution
JEL Codes: J61; J71; N22
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| black migration (R23) | black wages in the North (J31) |
| black migration (R23) | white wages in the North (J31) |
| black migration (R23) | black-white wage gap (J31) |
| black and white workers' skills (J79) | elasticity of substitution (D11) |
| southern migration (R23) | black wage growth (J31) |