Working Paper: NBER ID: w13749
Authors: Timothy Cogley; Giorgio E. Primiceri; Thomas J. Sargent
Abstract: We use Bayesian methods to estimate two models of post WWII U.S. inflation rates with drifting stochastic volatility and drifting coefficients. One model is univariate, the other a multivariate autoregression. We define the inflation gap as the deviation of inflation from a pure random walk component of inflation and use both of our models to study changes over time in the persistence of the inflation gap measured in terms of short- to medium-term predicability. We present evidence that our measure of the inflation-gap persistence increased until Volcker brought mean inflation down in the early 1980s and that it then fell during the chairmanships of Volcker and Greenspan. Stronger evidence for movements in inflation gap persistence emerges from the VAR than from the univariate model. We interpret these changes in terms of a simple dynamic new Keynesian model that allows us to distinguish altered monetary policy rules and altered private sector parameters.
Keywords: Inflation; Persistence; Monetary Policy; Bayesian Methods; Vector Autoregression
JEL Codes: C11; C15; C32; E3; E52
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| inflation gap persistence (E31) | predictability of inflation gaps (E31) |
| change in inflation gap persistence (E31) | improved monetary policy (E52) |
| improved monetary policy (E52) | reduction in variability of Federal Reserve's long-run inflation target (E52) |
| non-policy factors (L49) | better inflation outcomes (E31) |
| past shocks to inflation (E31) | future inflation movements (E31) |