Working Paper: NBER ID: w13707
Authors: Matthias Doepke; Moshe Hazan; Yishay Maoz
Abstract: We argue that one major cause of the U.S. postwar baby boom was the rise in female labor supply during World War II. We develop a quantitative dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous fertility and female labor force participation decisions. We use the model to assess the impact of the war on female labor supply and fertility in the decades following the war. For the war generation of women, the high demand for female labor brought about by mobilization leads to an increase in labor supply that persists after the war. As a result, younger women who reach adulthood in the 1950s face increased labor market competition, which impels them to exit the labor market and start having children earlier. The effect is amplified by the rise in taxes necessary to pay down wartime government debt. In our calibrated model, the war generates a substantial baby boom followed by a baby bust.
Keywords: Baby Boom; World War II; Female Labor Supply; Fertility; Labor Economics
JEL Codes: D58; E24; J13; J20
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Wartime mobilization (H56) | Female labor supply (J21) |
| Female labor supply (J21) | Postwar baby boom (J13) |
| Increased demand for female labor (J21) | Female labor supply (J21) |
| Increased competition in labor market (J29) | Shift in childbearing patterns (J13) |
| Rise in taxes to pay down wartime debt (H69) | Increase in fertility (J13) |
| Wartime mobilization (H56) | Shift in childbearing patterns (J13) |
| Female labor supply (J21) | Increase in fertility (J13) |