Working Paper: NBER ID: w13675
Authors: Gordon H. Hanson; Craig McIntosh
Abstract: In this paper, we examine net emigration from Mexico over the period 1960 to 2000. The data are consistent with labor-supply shocks having made a substantial contribution to Mexican emigration, accounting for two fifths of Mexican labor flows to the U.S. over the last two decades of the 20th century. Net emigration rates by Mexican state birth-year cohort display a strong positive correlation with the initial size of the Mexican cohort, relative to the corresponding U.S. cohort. In states with long histories of emigration, the effects of cohort size on emigration are relatively strong, consistent with the existence of pre-existing networks.
Keywords: Mexican emigration; labor supply shocks; migration networks
JEL Codes: F22; J61
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| labor supply shocks (J20) | Mexican emigration (F22) |
| initial cohort size in Mexico (O54) | net emigration rates by Mexican state (J61) |
| decline in fertility rates in Mexico (J13) | differences in labor supply growth (J49) |
| differences in labor supply growth (J49) | future cohorts emigration rates (J11) |