Working Paper: NBER ID: w13667
Authors: Rebecca M. Blank; Kerwin Kofi Charles; James M. Sallee
Abstract: This paper investigates the response of young people in the United States to state laws dictating the minimum age at which individuals could marry, with and without parental consent. We use variation across states and over time to document behavioral responses to laws governing the age of marriage using both administrative records from the Vital Statistics and retrospective reports from the U.S. Census. We find evidence that state laws delayed the marriages of some young people, but the effects are much smaller in Census data than in Vital Statistics records. This discrepancy appears to be driven by systematic avoidance behavior of two kinds. First, some young people marry outside their state of residence, in states with less restrictive laws. Second, many young people appear to have evaded minimum age of marriage laws by misrepresenting age on their marriage certificate. This avoidance was especially pronounced in earlier years, when few states required documented proof of age and when there was greater gain to marrying out of state because of wider variation in laws. Our results have important implications about the quality of administrative data when it is poorly monitored; about the effect of laws when agents can avoid them; and about the validly of estimates using cross-state variation in laws as an instrumental variable. By contrasting two data sources, we achieve a more complete picture of behavioral response than would be possible with either one alone.
Keywords: Marriage Laws; Age of Marriage; Avoidance Behavior; Census Data; Vital Statistics
JEL Codes: C81; H73; J12
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| state minimum age of marriage laws (K36) | delay in marriages of young people (J12) |
| state minimum age of marriage laws (K36) | compliance with the law (spike in marriages at legal ages) (K36) |
| systematic avoidance behavior (D91) | circumvention of marriage laws (K36) |
| misrepresentation of age on marriage certificates (J12) | ability to marry despite being below legal age (K36) |
| marriage migration to states with less restrictive laws (J12) | ability to marry despite being below legal age (K36) |
| state minimum age of marriage laws (K36) | likelihood of marriage (J12) |
| legal age of marriage without parental consent (K36) | likelihood of being married by age 18 (J12) |