Working Paper: NBER ID: w13583
Authors: David E. Bloom; David Canning; Gnther Fink; Jocelyn E. Finlay
Abstract: We estimate the effect of fertility on female labor force participation in a cross-country panel data set using abortion legislation as an instrument for fertility. We find a large negative effect of the fertility rate on female labor force participation. The direct effect is concentrated among those aged 20-39, but we find that cohort participation is persistent over time giving an effect among older women. We present a simulation model of the effect of fertility reduction on income per capita, taking into account these changes in female labor force participation as well as population numbers and age structure.
Keywords: fertility; female labor force participation; demographic dividend
JEL Codes: J01; J1; J13; J21
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Decrease in fertility (J13) | Increase in income per capita (O49) |
| Decrease in fertility (J13) | Changes in population age structure (J11) |
| Decrease in fertility (J13) | Higher female labor supply (J21) |
| Legalization of abortion (J13) | Decrease in fertility rates (J13) |
| Decrease in fertility rates (J13) | Increase in female labor force participation (J21) |
| Fertility rate (J13) | Decrease in female labor force participation (J21) |