Working Paper: NBER ID: w13576
Authors: Carolyn Moehling; Anne Morrison Piehl
Abstract: Research on crime in the late 20th century has consistently shown that immigrants have lower rates of involvement in criminal activity than natives. We find that a century ago immigrants may have been slightly more likely than natives to be involved in crime. In 1904 prison commitment rates for more serious crimes were quite similar by nativity for all ages except ages 18 and 19 when the commitment rate for immigrants was higher than for the native born. By 1930, immigrants were less likely than natives to be committed to prisons at all ages 20 and older. But this advantage disappears when one looks at commitments for violent offenses.
Aggregation bias and the absence of accurate population data meant that analysts at the time missed these important features of the immigrant-native incarceration comparison. The relative decline of the criminality of the foreign born reflected a growing gap between natives and immigrants at older ages, one that was driven by sharp increases in the commitment rates of the native born, while commitment rates for the foreign born were remarkably stable.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: J01; K4; N3
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| immigrant commitment rates remain stable (K37) | decline in immigrant criminality (K37) |
| rising commitment rates among native-born population (J11) | growing gap between natives and immigrants in criminality (K37) |
| age distribution differences (J11) | bias in perceived criminality of immigrants (K37) |
| commitment rates for serious crimes in 1904 (K42) | similar between immigrants and natives (J69) |
| commitment rates for violent offenses (K42) | decline in immigrant advantage (J69) |
| perception of higher immigrant criminality in earlier studies (K37) | aggregation bias (C43) |
| Dillingham and Wickersham commissions (K23) | insufficient evidence for immigrant crime prevalence (K37) |