Working Paper: NBER ID: w13553
Authors: Robert J. Shiller
Abstract: This paper looks at a broad array of evidence concerning the recent boom in home prices, and considers what this means for future home prices and the economy. It does not appear possible to explain the boom in terms of fundamentals such as rents or construction costs. A psychological theory, that represents the boom as taking place because of a feedback mechanism or social epidemic that encourages a view of housing as an important investment opportunity, fits the evidence better.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: R0
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| psychological feedback mechanism (D91) | home prices (R31) |
| public perception (E66) | home prices (R31) |
| expectations of future price increases (D84) | home prices (R31) |
| home prices (R31) | public interest (H40) |
| public interest (H40) | speculative behavior (D84) |
| speculative behavior (D84) | home prices (R31) |
| high expectations of future price increases (D84) | ongoing price booms (E32) |