Working Paper: NBER ID: w13535
Authors: Fernando Ferreira; Joseph Gyourko
Abstract: We examine whether partisan political differences have important effects on policy outcomes at the local level using a new panel data set of mayoral elections in the United States. Applying a regression discontinuity design to deal with the endogeneity of the mayor's party, we find that party labels do not affect the size of government, the allocation of spending or crime rates, even though there is a large political advantage to incumbency in terms of the probability of winning the next election. The absence of a strong partisan impact on policy in American cities, which is in stark contrast to results at the state and federal levels of government, appears due to certain features of the urban environment associated with Tiebout sorting. In particular, there is a relatively high degree of household homogeneity at the local level that appears to provide the proper incentives for local politicians to be able to credibly commit to moderation and discourages strategic extremism.
Keywords: Political Parties; Local Government; Partisanship; Regression Discontinuity
JEL Codes: H7; R38
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Political party affiliation (K16) | Local governance outcomes (H10) |
| Democrat mayor (J79) | Public spending (H59) |
| Democrat mayor (J79) | Crime rates (K42) |
| Republican mayor (H79) | Public spending (H59) |
| Republican mayor (H79) | Crime rates (K42) |
| Unobserved factors (C29) | Partisan differences in policy outcomes (D72) |
| Local voters (K16) | Policies implemented by politicians (D78) |