Working Paper: NBER ID: w13457
Authors: Adi Brender; Allan Drazen
Abstract: When democracy is new, it is often fragile and not fully consolidated. We investigate how the danger of a collapse of democracy may affect fiscal policy in new democracies in comparison to countries where democracy is older and often more established. We argue that the attitude of the citizenry towards democracy is important in preventing democratic collapse, and expenditures may therefore be used to convince them that "democracy works". We present a model focusing on the inference problem that citizens solve in forming their beliefs about the efficacy of democracy. Our approach differs from much of the literature that concentrates on policy directed towards anti-democratic elites, but our model can encompass that view and allows comparison of different apporoaches. We argue that the implications of the model are broadly consistent with the empirical patterns generally observed, including the existence of political budget cycles in new democracies not observed in established democracies.
Keywords: democracy; fiscal policy; public attitudes; political budget cycles
JEL Codes: D72; H30; P16
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| government expenditures (H59) | public support for democracy (D72) |
| public support for democracy (D72) | likelihood of democratic consolidation (D72) |
| government expenditures (H59) | citizens' perceptions of democracy's efficacy (D72) |
| citizens' perceptions of democracy's efficacy (D72) | public support for democracy (D72) |
| public support for democracy (D72) | likelihood of coups (D72) |
| government expenditures during election years (H59) | public perceptions of democracy (D72) |
| citizens' prior beliefs about democracy's efficacy (D72) | effectiveness of fiscal policy in influencing public attitudes (H30) |
| higher government spending during democratic vulnerability (H56) | enhanced perceptions of democracy's effectiveness (D72) |
| political budget cycles in new democracies (D72) | motivations behind fiscal policy (E62) |