Working Paper: NBER ID: w13374
Authors: Christopher Carpenter; Carlos Dobkin
Abstract: This paper estimates the effect of alcohol consumption on mortality using the minimum drinking age in a regression discontinuity design. We find that granting legal access to alcohol at age 21 leads to large and immediate increases in several measures of alcohol consumption, including a 21 percent increase in the number of days on which people drink. This increase in alcohol consumption results in a discrete 9 percent increase in the mortality rate at age 21. The overall increase in deaths is due primarily to a 14 percent increase in deaths due to motor vehicle accidents, a 30 percent increase in alcohol overdoses and alcohol-related deaths, and a 15 percent increase in suicides. Combining the reduced-form estimates reveals that a 1 percent increase in the number of days a young adult drinks or drinks heavily results in a .4 percent increase in total mortality. Given that mortality due to external causes peaks at about age 21 and that young adults report very high levels of alcohol consumption, our results suggest that public policy interventions to reduce youth drinking can have substantial public health benefits.
Keywords: Alcohol Consumption; Mortality; Minimum Drinking Age; Regression Discontinuity
JEL Codes: I1
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Legal access to alcohol at age 21 (L66) | Increase in the number of days on which individuals drink (C41) |
| Increase in the number of days on which individuals drink (C41) | Increase in overall mortality rate at age 21 (I12) |
| Increase in number of days individuals drink (C41) | Increase in deaths from motor vehicle accidents (R48) |
| Increase in number of days individuals drink (C41) | Increase in alcohol-related deaths (I12) |
| Increase in number of days individuals drink (C41) | Increase in suicides (I12) |
| 1% increase in the number of days a young adult drinks heavily (I12) | 4% increase in total mortality (I12) |