Working Paper: NBER ID: w13286
Authors: Robert E. Lucas Jr.
Abstract: A model is proposed to describe the evolution of real GDPs in the world economy that is intended to apply to all open economies. The five parameters of the model are calibrated using the Sachs-Warner definition of openness and time-series and cross-section data on incomes and other variables from the 19th and 20th centuries. The model predicts convergence of income levels and growth rates and has strong but reasonable implications for transition dynamics.
Keywords: Industrial Revolution; Economic Growth; Openness; Technology Diffusion
JEL Codes: O00; O19
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Openness (O36) | Economic Growth (O49) |
| Technology Flows (O33) | Economic Growth (O49) |
| Openness (O36) | Technology Flows (O33) |
| Openness + Human Capital (J24) | Economic Growth (O49) |
| Convergence of Income Levels (F62) | Openness (O36) |