Working Paper: NBER ID: w13184
Authors: Robert W. Fogel
Abstract: While the economies of the fifteen countries that were in the European Union (EU15) in 2000 will continue to grow from now until 2040, they will not be able to match the surges in growth that will occur in South and East Asia. In 2040, the Chinese economy will reach $123 trillion, or nearly three times the output of the entire globe in the year 2000, despite the influence of several potential political and economic constraints. India's economy will also continue to grow, although significant constraints (both political and economic) will keep it from reaching China's levels. The projected decline of the EU15's global share of GDP means that liberal Asian nations will be poised to take up the role of promoting liberal democracy across the globe.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: F47
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Unresolved social tensions and economic disparities in India (O17) | Economic growth in India (O00) |
| Economic growth in China (O49) | Economic growth in China (O49) |
| Sectoral labor shifts (J49) | Economic growth in China (O49) |
| Education investments (H52) | Labor quality (J24) |
| Labor quality (J24) | Economic growth in China (O49) |
| Aging population and declining fertility rates in the EU15 (J11) | Economic stagnation in the EU15 (O52) |
| Political stability in China (P16) | Economic growth in China (O49) |