Working Paper: NBER ID: w13102
Authors: Benjamin F. Jones; Benjamin A. Olken
Abstract: Assassinations are a persistent feature of the political landscape. Using a new data set of assassination attempts on all world leaders from 1875 to 2004, we exploit inherent randomness in the success or failure of assassination attempts to identify assassination's effects. We find that, on average, successful assassinations of autocrats produce sustained moves toward democracy. We also find that assassinations affect the intensity of small-scale conflicts. The results document a contemporary source of institutional change, inform theories of conflict, and show that small sources of randomness can have a pronounced effect on history.
Keywords: assassination; democracy; institutions; conflict
JEL Codes: D74; F52; P16
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Successful assassinations of autocrats (D74) | Transition to democracy (P39) |
| Successful assassinations of autocrats (D74) | Future leadership transitions through regular means (J62) |
| Successful assassinations of autocrats (D74) | Military conflict escalation (D74) |
| Successful assassinations of autocrats (D74) | Changes in political institutions (O43) |
| Successful assassinations of autocrats (D74) | Intensity of military conflicts (D74) |
| Failed assassination attempts (Y50) | Institutional changes (D02) |