Working Paper: NBER ID: w13031
Authors: Edward L. Glaeser; Bruce Sacerdote
Abstract: In the past two elections, richer people were more likely to vote Republican while richer states were more likely to vote Democratic. This switch is an aggregation reversal, where an individual relationship, like income and Republicanism, is reversed at some level of aggregation. Aggregation reversals can occur when an independent variable impacts an outcome both directly and indirectly through a correlation with beliefs. For example, income increases the desire for low taxes but decreases belief in Republican social causes. If beliefs are learned socially, then aggregation can magnify the connection between the independent variable and beliefs, which can cause an aggregation reversal. We estimate the model's parameters for three examples of aggregation reversals, and show with these parameters that the model predicts the observed reversals.
Keywords: aggregation reversals; social beliefs; voting behavior; income; education
JEL Codes: A1
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Higher income (D31) | Greater likelihood of voting for Republican candidates (K16) |
| Beliefs about social policies (J18) | Voting behavior (D72) |
| Education (I29) | Church attendance (Z12) |
| Higher education (I23) | Lower attendance rates in educated denominations (Z12) |
| Income (D31) | Military service (H56) |