Working Paper: NBER ID: w12922
Authors: Arianna Degan; Antonio Merlo
Abstract: In this paper we address the following question: To what extent is the hypothesis that voters vote sincerely testable or falsifiable? We show that using data only on how individuals vote in a single election, the hypothesis that voters vote sincerely is irrefutable, regardless of the number of candidates competing in the election. On the other hand, using data on how the same individuals vote in multiple elections, the hypothesis that voters vote sincerely is potentially falsifiable, and we provide general conditions under which the hypothesis can be tested. We then consider an application of our theoretical framework and assess whether the behavior of voters is consistent with sincere voting in U.S. national elections in the post-war period. We find that by and large sincere voting can explain virtually all of the individual-level observations on voting behavior in presidential and congressional U.S. elections in the data.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: C12; C63; D72
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| voters' ideological proximity to candidates (D79) | voting behavior (D72) |
| single election data (K16) | hypothesis is irrefutable (C12) |
| multiple elections (D72) | hypothesis is potentially falsifiable (C12) |
| configuration of candidates' positions (D79) | voting profiles (K16) |
| sincere voting (K16) | explains observed behaviors in U.S. elections from 1970 to 2000 (D72) |
| split-ticket voting (D72) | consistent with sincere voting (K16) |