Working Paper: NBER ID: w12864
Authors: Jintan Liu; Mengwen Tsou; James Hammitt
Abstract: The effect of new health information on individuals' expectations about their longevity is examined using a Bayesian learning model. Using two-period panel-structured survey data from Taiwan, we find that subjective probabilities of living to age 75 and 85 are significantly smaller for respondents with more abnormal medical test outcomes and for those receiving more extensive advice on health behavior from their physicians. The subjective probability of survival declines with health shocks such as developing heart disease. Using pooled cross-sectional data, we find that males and married persons are more optimistic about their longevity expectations than females and single persons, and that income is strongly correlated with the subjective probability of living to age 75. Consistent with previous studies, the longevity of the same-sex parent is strongly associated with an individual's own expectation of living to age 75.
Keywords: health information; subjective survival probability; Taiwan
JEL Codes: I10; J14
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| health shocks (I12) | subjective probabilities of living to age 75 and 85 (J26) |
| adverse health information (I12) | revised lower expectations of longevity (D15) |
| abnormal medical test outcomes (I12) | subjective probabilities of living to age 75 and 85 (J26) |
| extensive health behavior advice (I12) | subjective probabilities of living to age 75 and 85 (J26) |
| diagnosis of heart disease (I11) | subjective probabilities of living to age 75 and 85 (J26) |
| income (E25) | subjective probabilities of living to age 75 (J26) |
| gender (J16) | subjective probabilities of living to age 75 and 85 (J26) |
| marital status (J12) | subjective probabilities of living to age 75 and 85 (J26) |
| longevity of same-sex parent (J12) | subjective probabilities of living to age 75 and 85 (J26) |