Working Paper: NBER ID: w12654
Authors: Chryssi Giannitsarou; Andrew Scott
Abstract: The intertemporal budget constraint of the government implies a relationship between a ratio of current liabilities to the primary deficit with future values of inflation, interest rates, GDP and narrow money growth and changes in the primary deficit. This relationship defines a natural measure of fiscal balance and can be used as an accounting identity to examine the channels through which governments achieve fiscal sustainability. We evaluate the ability of this framework to account for the fiscal behaviour of six industrialised nations since 1960. We show how fiscal imbalances are mainly removed through adjustments in the primary deficit (80-100%), with less substantial roles being played by inflation (0-10%) and GDP growth (0-20%). Focusing on the relation between fiscal imbalances and inflation suggests extremely modest interactions. This post WWII evidence suggests that the widely anticipated future increases in fiscal deficits, need not necessarily have a substantial impact on inflation.
Keywords: Fiscal Deficit; Fiscal Sustainability; Government Debt; Inflation; Intertemporal Budget Constraint
JEL Codes: E31; E62
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| primary deficit (H62) | fiscal balance (E62) |
| inflation (E31) | fiscal balance (E62) |
| GDP growth (O49) | fiscal balance (E62) |
| demographic changes (J11) | fiscal deficits (H68) |
| fiscal deficits (H68) | inflation (E31) |