Working Paper: NBER ID: w12562
Authors: Matthew Gentzkow
Abstract: Many important economic questions hinge on the extent to which new goods either crowd out or complement consumption of existing products. Recent methods for studying new goods are based on demand models that rule out complementarity by assumption, so their applicability to these questions has been limited. I develop a new model that relaxes this restriction, and use it to study the specific case of competition between print and online newspapers. Using new micro data from the Washington DC market, I show that the major print and online papers appear to be strong complements in the raw data, but that this is an artifact of unobserved consumer heterogeneity. I estimate that the online paper reduced print readership by 27,000 per day, at a cost of $5.5 million per year in lost print profits. I find that online news has provided substantial welfare benefits to consumers and that charging positive online prices is unlikely to substantially increase firm profits.
Keywords: New goods; Online newspapers; Print newspapers; Consumer welfare; Demand estimation
JEL Codes: C25; L82
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| introduction of online newspapers (L86) | reduction in print readership (A19) |
| introduction of online newspapers (L86) | loss of print profits (A19) |
| raising the price of print edition by 10% (D49) | increase in online readership (A19) |
| online news (L86) | welfare benefits to consumers (I38) |
| welfare benefits to consumers (I38) | total welfare gain (D69) |
| charging positive prices for online content (D49) | increase in firm profits (D21) |