Working Paper: NBER ID: w1256
Authors: Michael Massourakis; Farahmand Rezvani; Tadashi Yamada
Abstract: Inthis paper, the relationship between unemployment and property crime is investigated in the context of dynamic system by using quarterly time series data for the United States during the period of 1973 (I) - 1981(IV). The results of Granger's causality tests indicate that unemployment by occupation (white and blue collars) is significantly associated with robbery, which is the most serious property crime. Unemployment by race (white, black, and Hispanic) also supports the above finding. In general, the linkage between unemployment rate and property crime seems to become stronger as the degree of seriousness of crime increases.The findings of the dynamic system show that blue collar, Hispanic, and black unemployment rates have persistently positive effects on robbery. Therefore, these above findings suggest that any attempt to reduce property crime through alleviation of unemployment would most efficiently be directed towards specific categories of the labor force.
Keywords: unemployment; property crime; dynamic system; Granger causality; race; occupation
JEL Codes: J6; K42
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Unemployment (J64) | Total Property Crime (K42) |
| Unemployment (J64) | Robbery (K42) |
| Unemployment (J64) | Burglary (K42) |
| Unemployment (J64) | Motor Vehicle Theft (L62) |
| Blue-Collar Unemployment (J69) | Robbery (K42) |
| Hispanic Unemployment (J69) | Robbery (K42) |
| Black Unemployment (J79) | Robbery (K42) |