Working Paper: NBER ID: w12375
Authors: Alberto Alesina; Paola Giuliano
Abstract: Total fertility declined in states that introduced unilateral divorce, which makes dissolution of marriage easier. Also the ratio of out-of-wedlock fertility over total declined. We suggest an explanation (and provide supportive evidence for it) based upon the effect of divorce laws on the probability of entering and exiting marriage. Women planning to have children marry more easily with an easier "exit option" from marriage. Thus, more children are born in the first years of marriage, while the total marital fertility does not change, probably as a result of an increase in divorces and marital instability.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: J12; J13
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| introduction of unilateral divorce laws (J12) | increase in probability of marriage among women planning to have children (J12) |
| increase in probability of marriage among women planning to have children (J12) | increase in early births (J13) |
| introduction of unilateral divorce laws (J12) | increase in early births (J13) |
| increase in early births (J13) | decline in total fertility rates (J13) |
| introduction of unilateral divorce laws (J12) | increase in divorce rates (J12) |
| increase in divorce rates (J12) | decline in total fertility rates (J13) |
| introduction of unilateral divorce laws (J12) | increase in marital instability (J12) |
| increase in marital instability (J12) | decline in total fertility rates (J13) |