Working Paper: NBER ID: w12228
Authors: Leonard Caruana; Hugh Rockoff
Abstract: During World War II the Allies controlled Spain's oil supply in order to limit Spain's support for the Axis. This experiment with sanctions is unusually informative because a wide range of policies was tried over a long period. Three episodes are of special interest: (1) a total embargo on oil for Spain in 1940 that was surprisingly successful in dissuading Spain from joining the Axis; (2) a period of reduced supplies in 1941-42 that we call "the Squeeze" that was only partially successful; and (3) a second total embargo in 1944 that was a disappointment for the Allies, given the course of the war, that produced a rift between Churchill and Roosevelt. Our analysis is based on new monthly estimates of Spain's imports of gasoline and other petroleum products, which we describe in the text and report in the appendix. These estimates allow us to draw a clearer picture of the oil sanctions than has been possible in the past.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: H4
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| total embargo on oil in 1940 (N72) | Spain's neutrality (F52) |
| squeeze from 1941 to 1942 (N44) | pressure on Spain (F55) |
| squeeze from 1941 to 1942 (N44) | Franco maintaining pro-Axis stance (F52) |
| second total embargo in 1944 (P33) | failure to achieve desired diplomatic outcomes (F51) |
| second total embargo in 1944 (P33) | tensions between Churchill and Roosevelt (D74) |