Working Paper: NBER ID: w12221
Authors: Susumu Imai; Hajime Katayama; Kala Krishna
Abstract: Using National Youth Survey (NYS) data, we examine the relationship of current criminal activity and past arrests using an ordered probit model with unobserved heterogeneity. Past arrests raise current criminal activity only for the non-criminal type, while past criminal experience raises current criminal activity for both types. Also, the age crime profile peaks at age 18 for non-criminal type individuals, but for criminal type individuals, it continues to rise with age. Past research indicates that age arrest profiles rise till age 18 and then fall for both types, suggesting lower apprehension rates for criminal type individuals.
Keywords: Crime; Young Men; Arrest; Criminal Experience; Heterogeneity
JEL Codes: K42; J24
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| past arrests (K40) | current criminal activity for noncriminal types (K42) |
| past arrests (K40) | current criminal activity for criminal types after age 18 (K42) |
| criminal experience (K42) | current criminal activity for noncriminal types (before age 18) (K42) |
| criminal experience (K42) | current criminal activity for noncriminal types (after age 18) (K42) |
| criminal experience (K42) | current criminal activity for criminal types (after age 18) (K42) |
| age (J14) | crime rate for criminal types (K42) |
| age (J14) | crime rate for noncriminal types (K42) |